美国网友:中国建那么多高铁究竟有利可图吗?

MeiTai

美国网友问:中国建那么多高铁究竟有利可图吗?

知识万物

从2012年到2022年，我国铁路营业里程达到15.5万公里，其中高铁从0.9万公里增长到4.2万公里，稳居世界第一。从短期上看，高铁确实很难盈利，但是从宏观角度看，在高铁实现全覆盖后，带动的大量就业，提升了多种工业部门的发展，加快社会的整体效益，是真正的大格局。在美版知乎Quora上，美国网友问：中国建那么多高铁有利可图吗？我们看看各国网友的回答。

美国专家高弗里•罗伯茨的回答

美国专家高弗里•罗伯茨的回答

The construction of high-speed rail in China is definitely advantageous, and almost all Chinese people can benefit from it. High speed rail is a great and obvious example of how China comprehensively designs its projects - covering infrastructure, social security, or national defense - and eliminates what Western economists call "externalities".

中国建设高铁绝对是有利的，几乎所有中国人都可以从中获利。高铁是一个很好的、非常明显的例子，说明了中国如何全面设计其项目——满足了基础设施、社会保障以及国防需求——并消除了西方经济学家所说的“外部性”，比如污染。

Firstly, let's review some of the history of infrastructure to help us understand why critics have long predicted problems in China.

首先，让我们回顾一些基础设施的历史，帮助我们理解为什么批评者长期预测中国会出现问题。

The most famous and popular high-speed rail line in the world is the 400 kilometer Eurostar, which connects the St. Pancras station in London, England, Paris North Station in France, Lille, and Brussels in Belgium. The railway company awarded the tunnel construction contract to TransManche Link (TML), which costs approximately £ 9.5 billion, about twice TML's initial estimate of £ 4.7 billion.

其中最著名的，世界上最受欢迎的高铁线路是400公里长的欧洲之星，连接英国伦敦圣潘可拉斯车站与法国巴黎北站、里尔以及比利时布鲁塞尔，铁路公司将隧道建设合同授予了TransManche Link（TML），该隧道耗资约95亿英镑，约为TML最初估计的47亿英镑的两倍。

The tunnel was partially funded by shareholder investments and partially funded by £ 8 billion in debt, and was officially opened on May 6, 1994 by Queen Elizabeth II and President Fran ç ois Mitterrand.

该隧道的资金部分来自股东的投资，部分来自80亿英镑的债务，于1994年5月6日由英国女王伊丽莎白二世和法国总统弗朗索瓦·密特朗正式开通。

In its first year of operation, the company suffered a loss of £ 925 million due to disappointing passenger and freight revenue, as well as high interest on £ 8 billion of debt.

在运营的第一年，该公司亏损9.25亿英镑，原因是乘客和货运收入令人失望，以及80亿英镑债务的高额利息。

In April 2004, a dissident shareholder group led by Nicholas Miguel successfully took control of the board of directors. However, in February 2005, Jean Louis Raymond, the CEO appointed after the board coup, resigned, and Jacques Gunnon took full control of the company, becoming the chairman and CEO. In July 2006, shareholders voted on a transaction that would reduce debt to £ 6.2 billion in exchange for 87% equity. However, this plan failed, and on August 2, 2006, the company was placed under bankruptcy protection by a French court for six months.

2004年4月，由尼古拉斯·米格领导的持不同政见的股东团体成功控制了董事会。然而，2005年2月，董事会政变后任命的首席执行官让-路易·雷蒙德辞职，雅克·古农完全控制了公司，成为董事长兼首席执行官。2006年7月，股东们对一项交易进行了投票，该交易将使债务减少到62亿英镑，换取87%的股权。然而，这一计划失败了，2006年8月2日，该公司被法国法院置于破产保护之下，为期六个月”。

The experience of Eurostar confirms the long-standing claim of neoliberal critics that even if infrastructure benefits millions of people, it is not profitable. Therefore, when the Chinese government builds 20000 kilometers or even longer high-speed railways, it is natural for skeptics to predict bankruptcy. China's high-speed rail service was opened on April 18, 2007, and since then, traffic has increased by 30% annually, reaching 1.44 billion people in 2016: four times the traffic volume of Japan's high-speed rail, nine times that of France, and more than the total air traffic volume of North America.

欧洲之星的经历证实了新自由主义批评者长期以来的说法：基础设施即使造福数百万人，也是无利可图的。因此，当中国政府修建2万公里甚至里程更长的高速铁路时，怀疑论者预测破产是很自然的事。中国的高铁服务于2007年4月18日开通，自那以来，交通量每年增长30%，2016年达到14.4亿人次：是日本高铁交通量的四倍，是法国的九倍，超过北美的总航空交通量。

Despite these impressive numbers, each completed line experiences losses in the first few years of operation.

尽管有这些令人印象深刻的数字，但每条完工的线路在运营的头几年都会出现亏损。

The construction cost of the Beijing Tianjin high-speed railway is 20.42 billion yuan, and the operating cost is 1.8 billion yuan (including 600 million yuan of interest). It requires 40 million ride services per year to make a profit. According to Japanese media reports, in the first year of 2008 to 2009, it transported 18.7 million passengers, generated 1.1 billion yen in revenue, and lost 700 million yen. In the second year, the passenger volume increased to 22.3 million, revenue increased to 1.4 billion yen, and a loss of 500 million yen. By 2016, it had reached its limit, providing 100 million ride services -100% capacity - and lucrative profits. The second line has started construction.

京津高铁的建设成本为204.2亿元人民币，运营成本为18亿元人民币（包括6亿元利息），每年需要提供4000万次乘车服务才能盈利。据日媒报道，在2008年至2009年的第一年，它运送了1870万名乘客，产生了11亿日元的收入，损失了7亿日元。第二年，乘客量增至2230万人次，收入增至14亿日元，亏损5亿日元。到2016年，它已经达到了极限，提供了1亿次乘车服务——100%的容量——并且利润丰厚。第二条线路已经开始施工。

China's high-speed rail network has surpassed Western predictions in both technology and finance, and is profitable today.

中国的高铁网络无论在技术上还是在财务上都超出了西方的预测，并且在今天盈利颇丰。

中国的高铁网络无论在技术上还是在财务上都超出了西方的预测，并且在今天盈利颇丰 ...

中国日益增长的高铁里程

Where do profits come from? How can profits be used to repay construction loans? The answer is: They come from almost anywhere, and since all aspects of the network are cooperative, it is easy to earn enough interest from them and repay them when the bonds mature. Therefore, here are methods to save costs and some sources of income:

利润从哪里来？利润如何用于偿还建筑贷款？答案是：它们几乎来自任何地方，而且由于网络的各个方面都是合作所有的，因此很容易从中赚取足够的利息，并在债券到期时偿还，所以这里列出了节约成本的方法和一些收入来源：

Improve prediction accuracy. The more they build, the more accurate their predictions will be. Accurate predictions lead to accurate financial models, leading to accurate bond pricing.

提高预测准确性。他们建造得越多，他们的预测就越准确。准确的预测导致准确的金融模型，从而导致准确的债券定价。

Low construction cost. The project benefits from scale. From mass produced unsupported track sections to bridges (ordered in meters), to engines and carriages. Production and demand are tightly integrated, eliminating downtime and high costs. The current construction and manufacturing costs are 30% -40% cheaper than anywhere on Earth. Here is an example of an automated process: the SLJ900/32 bridge erecting machine lays a prefabricated track in 50 minutes, which is much faster than the speed completed by 20 workers. Research on the Construction Cost of China's High Speed Railway:

施工成本低。该项目受益于规模。从大规模生产的无支架轨道段到桥梁（按米订购），再到发动机和车厢。生产和需求紧密集成，消除了走走停停和成本高昂的停机时间。目前的建筑和制造成本比地球上任何地方都便宜30%-40%。下面是一个自动化过程的例子：SLJ900/32架桥机在50分钟内铺设一段预制轨道，比20名工人完成的速度快得多。中国高速铁路建设成本研究：

The economic stimulus comes from initial investment. Of the 650 billion US dollars invested so far, the vast majority have returned in the form of income tax and sales tax within 12 months, spreading from factories and construction sites in various directions. During the economic recession, high-speed rail construction created job opportunities and increased demand for the construction, steel, and cement industries. The Beijing Shanghai high-speed railway project mobilized 110000 workers.

经济刺激来自最初的投资。在（迄今为止）投资的6500亿美元中，其中绝大部分在12个月内以所得税和销售税的形式回流，这些税从工厂和建筑工地向各个方向蔓延。在经济衰退期间，高铁建设创造了就业机会，提高了对建筑、钢铁和水泥行业的需求。京沪高铁工程动员了11万名工人。

Land development. This is the ace of the system: which shopping centers at the station? A portion of the rent is used to repay the bonds. Land sales around the station? A portion of the sales price is used to repay the bond. An increase in commercial activities around the station? Some of the increased taxes will help repay bonds. Those 'deserted stations'? When new cities are built around them, land sales and development, as well as an increased tax base, will help repay bonds.

土地开发。这是系统的王牌：车站的那些购物中心？租金的一部分用来偿还债券。车站周围的土地销售？销售价格的一部分用于偿还债券。车站周围商业活动的增加？增加的税收中有一部分有助于偿还债券。那些“荒无人烟的车站”？当新城在它们周围建造时，土地销售和开发以及增加的税收基础将有助于偿还债券。

Improve productivity by saving passengers time. By improving railway transportation capacity and connecting to the labor market, long-term economic productivity and competitiveness can be improved. A World Bank survey found that the average income of high-speed train passengers is 35-50% higher than that of regular train passengers. Compared to traveling by car, plane, or regular train, 1.8 billion passengers save an average of 4 hours per person, while the city's average salary is $1000 per month. Therefore, high-speed rail will save the average passenger $24 in production time, totaling $43 billion. This will ultimately promote economic activity, as well as taxation.

通过节省乘客时间提高生产力。通过提高铁路运输能力和连接劳动力市场，长期提高经济生产力和竞争力。世界银行的调查发现，高速列车乘客的平均收入比常规列车乘客高35-50%。与乘坐汽车、飞机或普通火车相比，18亿乘客每人平均节省4个小时，而城市平均工资为1000美元/月，那么高铁将为平均乘客节省24美元的生产时间，总计430亿美元。这最终将促进经济活动，当然还有税收。

Ticket revenue. Since the opening of the first line, ticket prices have remained almost unchanged, while the average salary has doubled. Nowadays, the number of people who can afford high-speed rail is twice that of 2007.

车票收入。自从第一条线路开通以来，票价几乎持平，而平均工资翻了一番。如今，负担得起高铁的人数是2007年的两倍。

Freight revenue has increased. Intercity express parcel delivery is a huge and growing source of revenue. Nowadays, due to the high-speed rail network, people living in Shanghai can order products from Alibaba in the morning and receive them at night, which is another reason for the booming development of e-commerce in China. The increase in productivity and competitiveness leads to an increase in taxation. Transferring passengers to high-speed lines can allow older railways to transport more goods, which is more profitable for railways than for passengers.

货运收入增加。城际高速包裹递送是一个巨大且不断增长的收入来源。如今，由于高铁网络，住在上海的人可以早上从阿里巴巴订购产品，晚上就能拿到，这也是中国电子商务蓬勃发展的另一个原因。生产力和竞争力的提高带来税收的增加。将乘客转移到高速线路可以让较旧的铁路运输更多的货物，这对铁路来说比乘客更有利可图。

Advertising revenue. Conduct billions of advertising "brainwashing" campaigns on passengers whose average income is 30-50% higher than the national average.

广告收入。对平均收入比全国平均水平高30-50%的乘客进行数十亿次的广告“洗脑”。

Franchise revenue (food and beverage). Those snack cars, station discounts, beverage vending machines? They are also repaying bonds.

特许经营收入（食品和饮料）。那些小吃车，车站优惠，饮料售货机？他们也在偿还债券。

Environmental benefits. High speed rail significantly reduces noise, high air pollution, and carbon dioxide emissions. These are direct contributions to the quality of life and indirect contributions to reducing air pollution, thereby increasing the value of surrounding land.

环境效益。高铁显著降低了噪音、高大气污染和二氧化碳排放。这些是对生活质量的直接贡献，也是对减少大气污染的间接贡献，从而提高周围土地的价值。

不同交通工具的二氧化碳排放

美国网友温诺罗斯的回答

China Railway Corporation (CR) is a state-owned enterprise that owns and operates the vast majority of China's railway network. This includes commercial freight operations, high-speed passenger railways, and almost all high-speed railway operations. It is the successor to the now dissolved Ministry of Railways.

中国铁路总公司(中国铁路总公司 CR）是一家国有企业，拥有并运营着中国绝大多数的铁路网。这包括商业货运运营、高速客运铁路以及几乎所有的高速铁路运营。它是现已解散的铁道部的继任者。

Although China Resources has not yet been publicly listed, as it is one of the largest public bond issuers in China, China Resources still releases quarterly financial reports. For example, you can find its latest annual financial report here: China Bond -2017 Financial Report of China Railway Corporation.

尽管华润尚未公开上市，但由于其是中国最大的公共债券发行人之一，华润仍按季度发布财务报告。例如，你可以在这里找到它的最新年度财务报告：中国债券——中国铁路总公司2017年财务报告。

The following is its historical financial position (income statement and balance sheet) since its establishment. These are screenshots of Capital IQ, but these numbers are directly from the annual report in the link above.

以下是其自成立以来的历史财务状况（损益表和资产负债表）。这些是Capital IQ的截图，但这些数字直接来自上面链接中的年度报告。

At the regional level, high-speed rail can help accelerate regional economic integration and narrow China's regional income gap. High speed rail has brought 59% market potential growth to secondary cities connected by bullet trains. Economic geographers refer to market potential as the opportunity for a geographical region to enter the input and output markets. The 10% increase in market potential in secondary cities is expected to be associated with a 4.5% increase in average real estate prices. High speed rail promotes the development of second tier cities by making them more livable/popular - of course, it also imposes taxes on increased income

在高铁通过地区层面，高铁有助于加速区域经济融合，缩小中国的区域收入差距。高铁为子弹头列车连接的二级城市带来了59%的市场潜力增长。（经济地理学家将市场潜力称为“一个地理区域进入投入和产出市场的机会”）。二级城市市场潜力的10%增长预计将与平均房地产价格的4.5%增长相关联。高铁通过使二线城市更宜居/更受欢迎来促进二线城市的发展——当然，还对增加的收入征税……

Increase national cohesion and form a national market. The rapid movement of people, products, and services enables people to live and work in one place. High speed rail helps rural areas profit from natural resources by bringing business opportunities and tourists, while reducing the sense of isolation among rural people (think of Tibet!)

增加民族凝聚力和形成民族市场。人员、产品和服务移动迅速，使人们能够在一个地方生活，在另一个地方工作。高铁通过带来商机和游客，帮助农村地区从自然资源中获利，同时减少农村人的孤立感（想想西藏吧！）

Export of intellectual property rights. China is the main source of high-speed railway technology. Chinese train manufacturers quickly absorbed imported technology, localized production processes, and began to compete in the export market. Six years after obtaining a license from Kawasaki to produce Shinkansen E2, CSC Sifang produced CRH2A without Japanese investment (Kawasaki terminated its cooperation with Sifang and has been unhappy ever since).

知识产权出口。中国是高速铁路技术的主要来源国。中国火车制造商迅速吸收了进口技术，本地化了生产流程，并开始在出口市场上竞争。在获得川崎公司生产新干线E2的许可六年后，CSC四方公司在没有日本投入的情况下生产了CRH2A（川崎公司终止了与四方公司的合作，从此一直闷闷不乐）。

Energy saving. Compared to cars and planes that rely more on imported oil, electric trains consume less energy to transport people and goods on a unit basis, and can obtain electricity from a wider range of sources, including renewable energy. This will reduce China's energy import bill by billions of dollars.

节能。与更依赖进口石油的汽车和飞机相比，电动火车在单位基础上运输人员和货物所消耗的能源更少，并且可以从更多样的能源中获取电力，包括可再生能源。这将从中国的能源进口账单中削减数十亿美元。

Scale savings: Subsidies for routes with higher profits and routes with lower profits, serving sparsely populated areas (think Tibet again).

规模节约：利润较高的线路补贴利润较低的线路，为人口稀少的地区服务（再想想西藏）。

Because the government controls all these factors for the benefit of the entire people, it can extract sufficient funds from each factor to easily repay bonds.

因为政府控制所有这些因素是为了全体人民的利益，所以它可以从每一个因素中提取足够的资金来轻松偿还债券。

To answer this question about profitability, we need to understand some accounting knowledge and the financial nature of some railway business. To be honest, due to differences in the way numbers are presented, even for someone who is very experienced in this field, it may seem confusing at first, but I ultimately solved this problem.

为了回答这个关于盈利能力的问题，我们需要了解一些会计知识和一些铁路业务的财务性质。老实说，由于数字呈现方式的差异，即使对于一个在这方面很有经验的人来说，一开始也有点令人困惑，但我最终还是解决了这个问题。

I attempt to extract relevant data from the raw data above, present it in a more familiar "US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles" style terminology, and explain in more detail the differences in the following tables and texts:

我试图从上面的原始数据中提取相关数据，用更熟悉的“美国公认会计原则”风格的术语呈现，并在以下表格和文本中更详细地解释差异所在：

As you can see, China Resources' revenue is a combination of freight, passenger, and 'other' revenue. High speed rail accounts for the majority of "passenger" revenue projects.

正如你所看到的，华润的收入是货运、客运和“其他”收入的组合。高铁占“客运”收入项目的大部分。

Other "income includes real estate business related to railways.

“其他”收入包括与铁路相关的房地产业务。

For example, rental income from stores or advertising revenue from train station billboards.

例如，商店的租金收入或火车站广告牌的广告收入。

Train stations are clearly places with very high traffic volume, and their ability to attract pedestrian traffic can generate significant economic value.

火车站显然是交通量非常高的地方，根据其吸引步行交通的能力，可以产生显著的经济价值。

The "operating profit" in the annual report is actually what American financial analysts commonly refer to as "pre tax income.

年度报告中的“营业利润”（中文：营业利润) 实际上是美国金融分析师通常所说的“税前收入。

Overall, I estimate that the operating profit margin of China Railway Corporation is relatively healthy, around 20%.

总的来说，我估计中国铁路总公司的运营利润率相对健康，约为20%。